Ukuhlaziywa Kwezindlela Zamanani Nezici Eziyinhloko Ezithonya I-Graphitized Petroleum Coke (Kusukela Embonweni Ka-2025)
I. Izitayela Zentengo: Ukwanda Kwesikhathi Esifushane Okulandelwa Ukwehluka, Isikhathi Eside Kusekelwa Igebe Lokunikezwa Kwezidingo
1. Ukusebenza Kwentengo ngo-2025
- I-coke ene-sulfur ephansi ihola ukuhlangana: Iqhutshwa ukwanda kwesidingo sezinto ze-anode ezimotweni ezintsha zamandla, amanani e-coke ene-sulfur ephansi akhuphuka ngokushesha ekuqaleni kuka-2025. Isibonelo, intengo ye-coke ene-sulfur ephansi evela ku-Fushun Petrochemical yanda isuka ku-3,000 yuan/ton ngoDisemba 2024 yaya ku-3,500 yuan/ton ngoJanuwari 2025, kanti amanye amanani endalini adlula ku-4,200 yuan/ton.
- I-coke yesulfur ephakathi kuya kwephezulu ilandela lokhu okulandelayo: I-coke yesulfur ephakathi yayibiza phakathi kuka-2,400 no-2,900 yuan/ton, kuyilapho i-coke yesulfur ephezulu yayiqala ku-1,300 kuya ku-1,800 yuan/ton. Nakuba ukwenyuka kwayo kwakuphansi kunokwe-coke yesulfur ephansi, ibonise ukuthambekela kokukhuphuka jikelele.
- Kusekelwa igebe lokufunwa kokunikezwa: Igebe lokufunwa kokunikezwayo elingamathani angu-870,000 ngo-2025 kulindeleke ukuthi liqhube intengo ephakathi konyaka ibe phakathi kuka-3,000–4,000 yuan/ton.
2. Umbono ngo-2026
- Ukwenyuka kwentengo okumaphakathi: Igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kulindeleke ukuthi linciphe libe ngamathani angu-660,000, kodwa isabelo sesidingo samandla amasha kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke sifike ku-21%, okuphoqa intengo ejwayelekile yonyaka ibe phakathi kuka-3,200–4,200 yuan/ton, kanti i-coke ene-sulfur ephansi ingase idlule u-4,000 yuan/ton.
- Ukwehluka kwesakhiwo: Amanani e-coke ene-sulfur ephezulu azohlala ephansi ngenxa yokutholakala okwanele, aguquguquka phakathi kwebanga eliphakathi kuka-1,500–2,000 yuan/ton.
II. Izici Eziyinhloko Ezithonyayo: Ukuxhumana Okunxantathu Kwesidingo, Ukunikezwa, kanye Nenqubomgomo
1. Uhlangothi Lwesidingo: Ukukhula Kwesakhiwo Okuqhutshwa YiNguquko Yamandla Amasha
- Izinto ze-anode zebhethri le-lithium-ion: Ngo-2024, isidingo sezinto ze-anode sabalelwa ku-8% wokusetshenziswa kwe-coke kaphethiloli iyonke, futhi lesi sabelo kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphukele ku-11% ngo-2026. Ukwengezwa kwamandla amasha emotweni entsha yamandla kanye nemikhakha yokugcina amandla edlula amathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.96 ngonyaka kuzokhulisa ngqo isidingo se-coke ephansi yesulfur.
- Ubuthakathaka emikhakheni yendabuko: Isidingo emikhakheni yekhabhoni kanye nephethiloli sisalokhu sihamba kancane, ngamandla okuthenga ancishisiwe ngenxa yenzuzo embi. Isibonelo, amabhizinisi ekhabhoni anciphise ukuthengwa phakathi kwesidingo esibuthakathaka embonini ye-aluminium (ngentengo ye-aluminium elungisa ngo-2025), kuyilapho imboni kaphethiloli ishintshe i-coke kaphethiloli ene-sulfur ephezulu ngamalahle ashibhile (isilinganiso cishe ama-yuan angu-500/ton ngo-2025).
2. Uhlangothi Lokuphakelwa: Ukukhula Kwamandla Okulinganiselwe kanye Nokucindezeleka Kwezindleko
- Ukwanda kancane kwamandla asekhaya: Azikho izikhungo ezintsha zokupheka ezibambezelekile ezihlelelwe u-2025, futhi intela ephezulu yokungenisa uwoyela kaphethiloli (eqala ukusebenza ngoJanuwari 1, 2025) inciphise amazinga okusebenza ezindaweni zokuhluza ezizimele, kanti izinkampani zokuhluza eziseShandong zibhekene nokwehla okukhulu, okunciphisa umkhiqizo wasekhaya.
- Ukungatholakali kahle kwamanye amazwe: Ukukhiqizwa kwe-coke ene-sulfur ephansi kunqunyelwe eYurophu nase-United States ngenxa yokuqukethwe okuphezulu kwe-sulfur ku-oyili ongahluziwe, okuholela ekuthembekeni okuphezulu kokungenisa kwamanye amazwe okuqhubekayo.
3. Uhlangothi Lwenqubomgomo: Izithiyo Ezimbili Ezivela Ezinqubomgomo Zezemvelo Nezokuhweba
- Imikhawulo yokukhiqizwa kwemvelo: Isidingo se-coke kaphethiloli ene-sulfur ephansi (enokuqukethwe kwe-sulfur <0.5%) sikhuphuke ngenxa yokuhambisana kwayo nezindinganiso zemvelo, kuyilapho izimboni ezine-carbon ephezulu njenge-aluminium ye-electrolytic zibhekane nokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa ngaphansi kwemingcele yenqubomgomo, okuthinta ngokungaqondile isidingo se-coke kaphethiloli.
- Ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo: Nakuba isidingo semakethe yamazwe ngamazwe esihamba kancane noma ukuguquguquka kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwezimpahla kungathinta amanani asekhaya, ukulungiswa kwentela kawoyela kaphethiloli ka-2025 kukhuphule ngqo izindleko zabahlanzi abazimele, kwaba yimbangela eyinhloko yokuncipha kokunikezwa kwezimpahla.
4. Izindleko Ezihlangene: Ukudluliswa Kokuguquguquka Kwentengo Kawoyela Ongahluziwe
- Ukwesekwa kwezindleko ezibuthakathaka: Intengo ejwayelekile kawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-67/barrelin2025 kanye no-mayfallto51/barrel ngo-2026 (isibikezelo se-EIA), okuzonciphisa ukwenyuka kwentengo kaphethiloli we-coke.
- Ukuguquguquka kwenzuzo yefektri: Lapho amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ephezulu, abahlanzi bandisa ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela olula ngokuphekwa okulibazisekile, okwandisa ukutholakala kwe-coke kawoyela. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-coke kawoyela iba isengezo senzuzo, isekela amanani.
III. Izingozi Namathuba Esikhathi Esizayo
1. Izingozi Ezimbi
- Ukwehla okungalindelekile kwamanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe: Uma intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent ingaphansi kuka-$50 ngomgqomo, amanani kawoyela we-coke angase ehle.
- Isidingo esibuthakathaka kunokulindelekile: Umthamo oweqile ezintweni ze-anode zebhethri le-lithium-ion noma ukunciphisa kokukhiqiza kwe-超预期 (okukhulu ngokungalindelekile) ku-aluminium ye-electrolytic kunganciphisa isidingo.
2. Izingozi Ezingalindelekile
- Ukunciphisa okwengeziwe komkhiqizo ezindaweni zokuhluza ezizimele: Uma amazinga okusebenza ezindaweni zokuhluza ezizimele eziseShandong ehla ngaphansi kuka-50%, ukuncipha kokunikezwa kungakhuphula amanani.
- Isidingo samandla amasha esinamandla kunalokho obekulindelwe: Uma isabelo sezinto ze-anode zebhethri le-lithium-ion sikhuphuka sifike ku-15%, amanani e-petroleum coke ephezulu angadlula ama-yuan angu-4,500/ton.
IV. Isiphetho: Amathuba Esakhiwo Phakathi Kokuguquguquka Okuphezulu
Amanani e-coke kaphethiloli ahlelwe nge-graphitized kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale eguquguqukayo kakhulu eminyakeni emibili ezayo, lapho i-coke ene-sulfur ephansi ivela njengembangela yokukhula okuyinhloko ngenxa yesidingo esisha samandla, kuyilapho i-coke ye-sulfur ephakathi kuya phezulu izobona ukwanda okulinganiselwe ngenxa yeziphepho emikhakheni yendabuko. Abatshalizimali kufanele baqaphelisise:
- Intuthuko emkhakheni omusha wamandla (isib. ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi, ukuqaliswa kwephrojekthi yokugcina amandla);
- Amanani okusebenza kwefektri yokuhluza yasekhaya (ikakhulukazi izinguquko zenqubomgomo ezithinta abahluzi abazimele);
- Ukuguquguquka kwamanani kawoyela emhlabeni jikelele (imiphumela yokudluliselwa kwezindleko);
- Ukuqina kokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yezemvelo (okuthinta kokubili ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo).
Ngokuphikisana nemigomo "ye-dual carbon" yaseShayina kanye nokuguquka kwamandla, imakethe ye-coke kaphethiloli ene-graphitized idlula ekuguqulweni kwesakhiwo kusuka kuphethiloli wendabuko kuya ezintweni ezintsha zamandla, kanye nokuntuleka kwe-coke ene-sulfur ephansi enikeza ukuqina kwentengo yesikhathi eside.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Novemba-14-2025