Yiziphi izici eziyinhloko ezithonya ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-graphitized petroleum coke emakethe?

Izici Eziyinhloko Ezithonya Ukuguquguquka Kwentengo Emakethe Ye-Graphitized Petroleum Coke

I. Uhlangothi Lwesidingo: Ukwandiswa Kwezimboni Ezingaphansi Komfula kanye Nokuvela Kwemikhakha Emisha

  1. Isidingo esivela ku-Electrolytic Aluminium kanye ne-Graphite Electrode Industries
    I-graphitized petroleum coke isebenza njengezinto eziyisisekelo zokusetshenziswa kwama-anode abhakiwe ngaphambilini embonini ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic kanye nezinto ezibalulekile ekukhiqizweni kwe-graphite electrode. Ukuguquguquka kwamandla e-aluminium ye-electrolytic kuthinta ngqo isidingo:

    • 2017–2018: Ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yesithando sikagesi se-arc furnace okwandisiwe kwabangela ukwanda kwesidingo se-graphite electrode, amanani e-petroleum coke enyuka kakhulu kusukela ku-RMB 1,200/ton kuya ngaphezu kuka-RMB 7,000/ton.
    • 2024: Imikhawulo yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni yaphoqa amanye amabhizinisi e-aluminium e-electrolytic ukuthi anciphise ukukhiqizwa, anciphise isidingo se-coke kaphethiloli futhi abeke ingcindezi ephansi emananini.
    • Umkhakha wokugcina amandla ebhethri: Isidingo esikhulayo sama-electrode e-graphite siqhubekisele phambili intengo ye-petroleum coke.
  2. Ukukhula Okukhulu Kwesidingo Sezinto Ezisetshenziswayo Zebhethri Le-Lithium
    • 2024: Isidingo somhlaba wonke sezinto ze-lithium battery anode sifinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.2, sidinga amathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-3 ze-petroleum coke, kodwa ukunikezwa kwangempela kwakungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.6 kuphela, okudala igebe lokunikezwa elingu-13%.
    • 2025: Amabhizinisi aseShayina anezinto ze-anode ahlele umthamo ongaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi ezi-5 (odlula kakhulu isidingo somhlaba wonke samathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.5), okwandisa umncintiswano wezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokushayela amanani e-coke kaphethiloli ene-sulfur ephansi asondela ku-RMB 6,000/ton, okuwukwenyuka okungu-150% kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2023.
  3. Ukwanda Kwesidingo Semboni Ye-Photovoltaic
    • 2024: Isidingo somhlaba wonke se-coke kaphethiloli esezingeni le-photovoltaic sikhuphuke ngo-35%, lapho abakhiqizi bezinto ze-silicon (isb., i-Tongwei, i-GCL) bencintisana ngezinsiza ze-coke ezine-sulfur ephansi, okwenza amanani akhuphuke.

II. Uhlangothi Lokunikezela: Ukuncishiswa Kwamandla kanye Nokuphazamiseka Kweketanga Lokunikezela

  1. Ukuncishiswa Kwekhono Lokuhlanza Amafutha
    • Izinqubomgomo Zomhlaba Wonke Zokuthi “Ikhabhoni Embili”: Ukususwa okusheshayo kwamandla okuhlanza aphelelwe yisikhathi eYurophu nase-US kuholele ekwehleni okungu-8% unyaka nonyaka kwamandla okuhlanza aseYurophu kanye nezinga lokuvalwa ngo-12% phakathi kwabahlanzi bamafutha e-shale base-US ngo-2024, okunciphisa kakhulu ukutholakala kwe-coke kaphethiloli ene-sulfur ephansi.
    • Ukuvalwa kwefekthri yokuhluza yaseShayina: NgoFebhuwari 2025, ifekthri ezimele yaseShandong (iGuangrao, iRizhao, neZibo) yamemezela ukuvalwa okungapheli kokugcinwa, okuqinisa kakhulu ukunikezwa kwemakethe.
  2. Ukuqagela Kwempahla Ethengiswayo Nokuqoqwa Kwabahwebi
    • Ukuqongelela abathengisi: Ngo-2024, abahwebi baqongelela inani elikhulu kakhulu lempahla, benciphisa amasheya echwebeni lasekhaya kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezimbili ngo-2023 kuya kumathani angu-800,000, okwenza ngokungekho emthethweni kwadala "ukushoda okungamanga."
    • Ukuthembela ekungenisweni kwempahla: I-China ingenise i-coke ene-sulfur ephezulu evela eRussia naseVenezuela, isebenzisa izinqubo zokususa i-sulfur ukuze kuncishiswe ingcindezi yokuphakelwa, yize izindleko zikhuphuke ngo-5%.
  3. Ukungezwani Kwezepolitiki Nezithiyo Zokuhweba
    • Imikhawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-graphite e-US eya eShayina: Kwaphoqa amabhizinisi aseShayina ukuba athembele ku-coke kaphethiloli yasekhaya, okwandisa ukucindezeleka kwesidingo sangaphakathi.
    • Ukudluliswa kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe: Ngo-2024, intengo kawoyela yamazwe ngamazwe yeqe ama-USD angu-120/umgqomo, okunciphisa imingcele yokucwenga futhi kwashukumisela abacwengi ukuba banciphise ukukhiqizwa, okwenza kwaba nzima kakhulu ukushoda kwe-petroleum coke.

III. Izinqubomgomo kanye neMithethonqubo Yezemvelo: Izindleko Ezikhuphukayo kanye Nokufakwa Kwezinto Ezintsha Kwezobuchwepheshe

  1. Izinqubomgomo Zemvelo Eziqinile
    • Ukwanda kwesidingo se-coke esi-sulfur ephansi: I-coke kaphethiloli ene-sulfur ephansi (okuqukethwe kwe-sulfur <0.5%) kubone isidingo esikhulu kakhulu kune-coke ene-sulfur eningi ngenxa yokuhambisana nezindinganiso zemvelo, okwandisa igebe lentengo.
    • Izindleko zokukhiqiza eziphakeme: Izindleko zokuthobela imithetho yezemvelo ezikhulayo zabakhiqizi be-petroleum coke zinyuse amanani.
  2. Usongo Lokufakwa Esikhundleni Kwezobuchwepheshe
    • Ukwanda kwama-anode asekelwe ku-silicon: Ukukhiqizwa kwe-Tesla ngobuningi bamabhethri angu-4680 anama-anode e-silicon-carbon kuthuthukise ubuningi bamandla ngo-20%. Amanani aphezulu e-coke kaphethiloli angasheshisa lo mkhuba wokushintshana.
    • Ukuvuselelwa kwe-graphite yemvelo: I-graphite yemvelo eguqulwe ubuso (isb., izembozo ze-carbide ze-nano-silicon) ifinyelele izimpilo zomjikelezo ezidlula imijikelezo engu-2,000 ngezindleko eziphansi ngo-30% kune-graphite yokwenziwa, okuthatha indawo yesidingo se-petroleum coke.

IV. Imizwa Yemakethe kanye Nokuqagela Kwemali

  1. Ukwehlukaniswa Kwezindlela Zokudlulisela Intengo
    • Ingcindezi yentengo engezansi: Amabhizinisi amakhulu aseShayina asebenzisa amabhethri e-lithium afuna ukwehliswa kwentengo ngo-15% kwezinto ze-anode, okunciphisa inzuzo enkulu yabakhiqizi be-petroleum coke abasebenzisa i-graphitized kusuka ku-35% kuya ku-8%.
    • Imibandela yokukhokha enwetshiwe: Imijikelezo yokuthola imali kuma-akhawunti inwetshwe kusukela ezinsukwini ezingu-90 kuya kwezingu-180, okwandisa izingozi zokugeleza kwemali kumabhizinisi amancane naphakathi.
  2. Amabhamuza Omthamo Nokuhlanganiswa Kwemboni
    • Ukugxila emakethe: I-CR5 (amabhizinisi amahlanu aphezulu) ibone isabelo semakethe sikhuphuka sisuka ku-70% saya ku-85%, kanti izinkampani ezilandelanayo ziphume ngobuningi.
    • Ukuncintisana komhlaba wonke: Izinkampani zaseJapan nezaseNingizimu Korea (isib. i-POSCO Chemical) zisheshise ukuthengwa kwabakhiqizi baseShayina abasezingeni lesibili ukuze babambe isabelo semakethe esisele.

V. Umbono Wesikhathi Esizayo: Ibhalansi Yezidingo Zokunikezela kanye Namaphuzu Okushintsha Kwentengo

  1. Izingcindezi Eziya Phansi
    • 2H 2025: Umthamo omusha wokuhlanza eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNdiya kulindeleke ukuthi unciphise igebe lokuphakelwa kwe-coke ene-sulfur ephansi libe ngu-5%.
  2. Izingozi Eziphambene
    • Uwoyela ongahluziwe ongaphezu kuka-USD 150/umgqomo: Amanani aphansi okusetshenziswa kwezindawo zokuhluza isikhathi eside angenza amanani e-petroleum coke abe ngu-RMB 8,000/ton.
  3. Ushintsho Lwemephu Yobuchwepheshe
    • I-graphite yokwenziwa: Isabelo semakethe sizokwehla sisuka ku-80% siye ku-60%, okusala kuyindlela evelele.
    • I-graphite yemvelo: Isabelo sizokhuphuka sisuka ku-15% siye ku-25%, sisebenzisa izinzuzo zezindleko.
    • I-silicon-based/hard carbon: Isabelo sizokhula sisuka ku-5% siye ku-15%, okuvula isigaba sesibili sokukhula.

Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Septhemba 16-2025