I-New Delhi: Umnotho waseNdiya ohamba kancane kanye nezimboni ezithembele kakhulu ku-oyela ongahluziwe njengezindiza, ezokuthutha ngemikhumbi, ezokuthutha ngemigwaqo kanye nezitimela cishe zizozuza ngokwehla okungazelelwe kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ngenxa yobhubhane lwe-coronavirus eShayina, inkampani engenisa uwoyela kakhulu emhlabeni, kusho izazi zezomnotho, abaphathi abakhulu kanye nochwepheshe.
Njengoba izimboni ezahlukene zishintsha isu lazo phakathi kokubikezelwa kwesidingo samandla okuncishiswa ngenxa yokuqubuka kwe-coronavirus, abathumeli abakhulu bakawoyela njengeNdiya bafuna ukuthola isivumelwano esingcono. I-India ingumthengisi kawoyela wesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni kanye nomthengi wesine ngobukhulu wegesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe (i-LNG).
Imakethe kawoyela okwamanje ibhekene nesimo esibizwa ngokuthi i-contango, lapho amanani entengo ephansi kunezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo.
"Izilinganiso zezinhlangano eziningana zisikisela ukuthi isidingo se-crude center saseShayina sizokwehla ngo-15-20%, okuholela ekunciphiseni kwesidingo se-crude center emhlabeni wonke. Lokhu kubonakala emananini e-crude center kanye ne-LNG, kokubili okungabalulekanga eNdiya. Lokhu kuzosiza iNdiya emikhawulweni yayo yezomnotho ngokuvimba ukuntuleka kwe-akhawunti yamanje, ukugcina uhlelo lokushintshanisa oluzinzile kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali," kusho uDebasish Mishra, umlingani eDeloitte India.
I-International Energy Agency (IEA) kanye ne-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) banciphise umbono wokukhula kwesidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke ngemuva kokuqubuka kwe-coronavirus.
“Imikhakha efana nezindiza, upende, izinto zobumba, eminye imikhiqizo yezimboni, njll. ingazuza ohlelweni lwentengo olungenabungozi,” kusho uMishra.
I-India iyisikhungo esibalulekile sokucwenga sase-Asia, esinomthamo ofakiwe ongamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-249.4 ngonyaka (mtpa) ezindaweni zokucwenga ezingama-23. Izindleko zebhasikidi laseNdiya lokungcola okungahluziwe, okulinganiselwa ku-$56.43 kanye no-$69.88 ngebhareli ku-FY18 kanye no-FY19, ngokulandelana, kulinganiselwa ku-$65.52 ngoDisemba 2019, ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Intengo yayingu-$54.93 ngebhareli ngomhlaka-13 kuFebhuwari. Ibhasikidi laseNdiya limelela isilinganiso se-Oman, Dubai kanye ne-Brent crude.
“Esikhathini esidlule, intengo kawoyela engembi ibone inzuzo yezindiza ithuthuka kakhulu,” kusho uKinjal Shah, iphini likamongameli wezilinganiso zezinkampani e-ejensi yokulinganisa i-ICRA Ltd.
Phakathi nokwehla komnotho, imboni yezokuhamba ngendiza yaseNdiya ibone ukukhula kwethrafikhi yabagibeli ngo-3.7% ngo-2019 kwafinyelela kubagibeli abayizigidi ezingu-144.
“Lesi kungaba isikhathi esihle sokuba izindiza zibuyisele imali elahlekile. Izindiza zingasebenzisa lokhu ukubuyisa imali elahlekile, kanti abahambi bangasebenzisa lesi sikhathi ukuhlela ukuhamba njengoba izindleko zamathikithi endiza zizoba lula kakhulu,” kusho uMark Martin, umsunguli kanye ne-CEO kwaMartin Consulting Llc, umeluleki wezindiza.
Ukuqubuka kwe-coronavirus eShayina kuphoqe izinkampani zamandla lapho ukuthi zimise izinkontileka zokulethwa kwezimpahla futhi zinciphise umkhiqizo. Lokhu kuthinte kokubili amanani kawoyela emhlabeni wonke kanye namazinga okuthunyelwa kwezimpahla. Ukungezwani kwezohwebo kanye nomnotho womhlaba ohamba kancane nakho kunomthelela ezimakethe zamandla.
Izikhulu ze-Indian Chemical Council, okuyinhlangano yezimboni, zithe i-India ithembele eShayina ngamakhemikhali kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani, njengoba isabelo salelo lizwe ekuthengisweni kwempahla sisukela ku-10-40%. Umkhakha we-petrochemical usebenza njengomgogodla weminye imikhakha eyahlukene yokukhiqiza kanye neyokungewona owokukhiqiza njengengqalasizinda, izimoto, izindwangu kanye nezinto ezihlala isikhathi eside zabathengi.
"Izinhlobonhlobo zezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nabaxhumanisi bathunyelwa bevela eShayina. Yize, kuze kube manje, izinkampani ezingenisa lezi zinto zingathinteki kakhulu, uchungechunge lwazo lokuhlinzeka luyaphela. Ngakho-ke, bangase bazizwe benomthelela esikhathini esizayo uma isimo singathuthuki," kusho uSudhir Shenoy, umongameli wezwe kanye ne-CEO yeDow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Lokhu kungase kuzuze abakhiqizi basekhaya bamakhemikhali enjoloba, ama-electrode e-graphite, umnyama we-carbon, amadayi kanye nemibala njengoba ukungenisa okuncane kwaseShayina kungaphoqa abathengi bokugcina ukuthi bawathole endaweni.
Amanani aphansi e-crude aletha izindaba ezinhle ebhange likahulumeni phakathi kokuntuleka kwemali engenayo kanye nokuntuleka kwemali kwezezimali okukhula ngokushesha. Ngenxa yokukhula okusheshayo kokuqoqwa kwemali engenayo, ungqongqoshe wezezimali uNirmala Sitharaman, ngenkathi ethula isabelomali seNyunyana, wasebenzisa lesi sigaba sokuphunyuka ukuze athathe indawo yamaphuzu angama-50 ekusweleni kwemali kwezimali kwango-2019-20, okwenza isilinganiso esibuyekeziwe safinyelela ku-3.8% we-GDP.
Umphathi we-RBI uShaktikanta Das ngoMgqibelo uthe ukwehla kwentengo kawoyela kuzoba nomthelela omuhle ekukhuphukeni kwamanani entengo. "Ukwenyuka okukhulu kuvela ekukhuphukeni kwamanani entengo yokudla, okungukuthi, imifino kanye nezinto zamaprotheni. Ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo eyinhloko kuye kwanda kancane ngenxa yokubuyekezwa kwentela yezokuxhumana," enezela.
Icindezelwe ukwehla komkhakha wokukhiqiza, umkhiqizo wezimboni zaseNdiya wehla ngoDisemba, kanti ukwehla kwamandla entengo kwezitolo kwashesha inyanga yesithupha ilandelana ngoJanuwari, okuphakamisa ukungabaza ngenqubo yokutakula komnotho osafufusa. Ihhovisi Lezibalo Likazwelonke lilinganisela ukuthi ukukhula komnotho waseNdiya kufinyelele ezingeni eliphansi leminyaka eyi-11 elingu-5% ngo-2019-20 ngenxa yokuncipha kokusetshenziswa kanye nesidingo sokutshalwa kwezimali.
UMadan Sabnavis, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu kwa-CARE Ratings, uthe amanani aphansi kawoyela abe yisibusiso eNdiya. “Kodwa-ke, ingcindezi ephezulu ayinakushiywa ngaphandle, njengoba kulindeleke ukunciphisa okuthile yi-OPEC namanye amazwe athumela kwamanye amazwe. Ngakho-ke, sidinga ukugxila endleleni yokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe futhi sibheke ukusebenzisa imbangela yokwehla kwamanani kawoyela, okungukuthi, i-coronavirus, futhi sisunduzele izimpahla zethu eShayina, ngenkathi sifuna ezinye izindlela zokuthumela ngaphandle esikhundleni sabahlinzeki. Ngenhlanhla, ngenxa yokugeleza kwemali okuqhubekayo, ingcindezi ku-rupee akuyona inkinga,” wengeza.
Ikhathazekile ngesimo sokufunwa kukawoyela, i-Opec ingase iqhubekisele phambili umhlangano wayo wangoMashi 5-6, kanti iphaneli yayo yobuchwepheshe incoma ukuncishiswa kwesikhashana kwesivumelwano se-Opec+.
“Ngenxa yokuthengiswa kwezimpahla ezivela eMpumalanga, umthelela emachwebeni amakhonteyina njenge-JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) uzoba mkhulu, kanti umthelela echwebeni laseMundra uzoba mkhulu,” kusho uJagannarayan Padmanabhan, umqondisi kanye nomholi wezokuthutha kanye nokuthutha eCrisil Infrastructure Advisory. “Uhlangothi oluphambene ukuthi okunye kokukhiqiza kungase kusuke eShayina kuye eNdiya okwesikhashana.”
Nakuba ukwanda kwamanani entengo eluhlaza ngenxa yokwanda kokungezwani phakathi kwe-US ne-Iran kube okwesikhashana, ukuqubuka kwe-coronavirus kanye nokunciphisa umkhiqizo okuseduze ngamazwe e-OPEC kuye kwaletha isici sokungaqiniseki.
“Nakuba amanani kawoyela ephansi, izinga lokushintshanisa (i-rupee uma iqhathaniswa nedola) liyakhuphuka, okuholela nasezindlekweni eziphakeme. Sizizwa sikhululekile uma i-rupee ingama-65-70 uma iqhathaniswa nedola. Njengoba ingxenye enkulu yezindleko zethu, okuhlanganisa nekaphethiloli wezindiza, ikhokhwa ngokwemigomo yedola, ukushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle kuyisici esibalulekile sezindleko zethu,” kusho umphathi omkhulu enkampanini yezindiza ebhajethi ese-New Delhi ngombandela wokungaziwa.
Ngokuqinisekile, ukubuya kwesidingo sikawoyela kungaphinde kukhuphule amanani angakhuthaza ukukhuphuka kwamanani futhi kulimaze isidingo.
Amanani aphezulu kawoyela nawo anomthelela ongaqondile ngezindleko zokukhiqiza nezokuthutha eziphakeme futhi afaka ingcindezi ephezulu ekukhuphukeni komnotho wokudla. Noma yimuphi umzamo wokunciphisa umthwalo kubathengi ngokunciphisa intela yentela kaphethiloli kanye nedizili uzophazamisa ukuqoqwa kwemali engenayo.
U-Ravindra Sonavane, u-Kalpana Pathak, u-Asit Ranjan Mishra, u-Shreya Nandi, u-Rhik Kundu, u-Navadha Pandey kanye no-Gireesh Chandra Prasad baba nesandla kule ndaba.
Manje usubhalisele izincwadi zethu zezindaba. Uma ungatholi noma iyiphi i-imeyili evela kithi, sicela uhlole ifolda yogaxekile.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-28-2021