I-New DelHI: Umnotho waseNdiya ovilaphayo kanye nezimboni ezincike kakhulu kuwoyela ongahluziwe njengezindiza, ezokuthutha, ezokuthutha ngomgwaqo kanye nezitimela kungenzeka zizuze ekwehleni okungazelelwe kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ngenxa yobhubhane lwe-coronavirus eChina, umthengisi omkhulu kawoyela emhlabeni, kusho osomnotho, abaphathi abakhulu kanye nochwepheshe.
Njengoba izimboni ezahlukahlukene zilungisa kabusha isu lazo phakathi kwezibikezelo zokufunwa kwamandla zincipha ngenxa yokuqubuka kokuqubuka kwe-coronavirus, abathekelisi abakhulu bakawoyela njengeNdiya bafuna ukwenza inzuzo engcono. I-India ingeyesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni ekuthengeni uwoyela kwamanye amazwe futhi ingowesine ngobukhulu umthengi we-liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Imakethe kawoyela njengamanje ibhekene nesimo esibizwa nge-contango, lapho amanani entengo ephansi kunenkontileka yesikhathi esizayo.
"Izilinganiso ezenziwa ama-ejensi amaningana ziphakamisa ukuthi isidingo se-Q1 yase-China sizokwehla ngo-15-20%, okuzoholela ekuncipheni kwesidingo esingcolile emhlabeni wonke. Lokhu kukhombisa amanani entengo e-crude kanye ne-LNG, kokubili okunempilo e-India. Lokhu kuzosiza i-India emikhakheni yayo yomnotho omkhulu ngokuqukatha ukushoda kwe-akhawunti yamanje ngokushintshanisa, nokugcina imali ephansi," kusho uMiququ. uzakwethu e-Deloitte India.
I-International Energy Agency (IEA) kanye ne-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) banciphise ukukhula kwesidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni jikelele kulandela ukuqubuka kwe-coronavirus.
"Imikhakha efana nezindiza, upende, izitsha zobumba, eminye imikhiqizo yezimboni, njll. ingazuza embusweni wamanani aphansi," kusho uMishra.
I-India iyisizinda sokuhluza esibalulekile sase-Asia, esinamandla afakiwe angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-249.4 zamathani ngonyaka (mtpa) ngokusebenzisa izindawo zokuhluza ezingama-23. Izindleko zikabhasikidi wase-India ongahluziwe, ezifinyelele ku-$56.43 kanye no-$69.88 ngomphongolo ngo-FY18 kanye no-FY19, ngokulandelana, zifinyelele ku-$65.52 ngoDisemba 2019, ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Intengo yayingu-$54.93 umgqomo ngo-13 February. Ubhasikidi waseNdiya umele isilinganiso se-Oman, Dubai ne-Brent crude.
"Esikhathini esidlule, intengo kawoyela ephansi ibone inzuzo yendiza iba ngcono kakhulu," kusho uKinjal Shah, iphini likamongameli wezilinganiso zebhizinisi esikhungweni sokulinganisa i-ICRA Ltd.
Phakathi nokuwohloka komnotho, imboni yezokuvakasha ngendiza yaseNdiya ibone ukukhula kwethrafikhi yabagibeli ngo-3.7% ngo-2019 kuya kubagibeli abayizigidi eziyi-144.
"Lesi kungaba isikhathi esihle sokuthi izinkampani zezindiza zenze ukulahlekelwa. Izinkampani zezindiza zingasebenzisa lokhu ukuze zibuyise ukulahlekelwa, kuyilapho abahambi bangasebenzisa lesi sikhathi ukuhlela uhambo njengoba izindleko zamathikithi endiza zingaba usizo kakhulu ephaketheni," kusho uMark Martin, umsunguli kanye ne-CEO kwaMartin Consulting Llc, umxhumanisi wezindiza.
Ukuqubuka kwe-coronavirus eChina kuphoqe izinkampani zamandla lapho ukuthi zimise izinkontileka zokulethwa futhi zehlise umkhiqizo. Lokhu kube nomthelela kokubili amanani entengo kawoyela womhlaba kanye namazinga okuthutha. Ukungezwani kwezohwebo kanye nokuwohloka komnotho womhlaba nakho kunomthelela omkhulu ezimakethe zamandla.
Izikhulu ze-Indian Chemical Council, okuyinhlangano yezimboni, zithe i-India incike eChina ngamakhemikhali kuwo wonke uchungechunge lwenani, kanti isabelo salelo zwe ekuthengisweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe sisuka ku-10-40%. Umkhakha we-petrochemical usebenza njengomgogodla weminye imikhakha eyahlukene yokukhiqiza nengakhiqizi njengengqalasizinda, izimoto, izindwangu kanye nezinto ezihlala isikhathi eside zabathengi.
"Izinhlobonhlobo zezinto ezingavuthiwe kanye nabalamuli zithunyelwa zivela eChina. Nakuba, kuze kube manje, izinkampani ezingenisa lezi azinawo umthelela omkhulu, uchungechunge lwazo lokuhlinzeka luyaphela. Ngakho-ke, bangase bazwe umthelela ngokuya phambili uma isimo singathuthuki," kusho uSudhir Shenoy, umongameli wezwe kanye ne-CEO ye-Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Lokhu kungase kuzuze abakhiqizi basekhaya bamakhemikhali enjoloba, ama-electrode e-graphite, i-carbon black, odayi nezimibalabala njengoba ukungenisa okuphansi kwamaShayina kungase kuphoqe abathengi ukuthi bakuthole endaweni.
Amanani aphansi entengo aluhlaza nawo aletha izindaba ezinhle esikhwameni sikahulumeni phakathi nokushoda kwemali engenayo kanye nokushoda kwezimali okwandayo. Uma kubhekwa ukukhula okuqinile kokuqoqwa kwemali engenayo, ungqongqoshe wezeziMali u-Nirmala Sitharaman, ngenkathi ethula isabelomali seNyunyana, wacela isigatshana sokuphunyuka ukuthi sithathe amaphuzu angama-50 esileleni sezimali sika-2019-2020, sithathe isilinganiso esibuyekeziwe saba ku-3.8% we-GDP.
Umbusi wakwa-RBI uShaktikanta Das ngoMgqibelo uthe ukwehla kwentengo kawoyela kuzoba nomthelela omuhle ekwehleni kwamandla emali. "I-spike enkulu ivela ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali okudla, okungukuthi, imifino kanye nezinto zamaprotheni. Ukwehla kwamandla emali okubalulekile kukhuphuke kancane ngenxa yokubuyekezwa kwezindleko ze-telecom," wengeza.
Icindezelwe ukwehla kwemboni yezokukhiqiza, umkhiqizo wasefekthri yaseNdiya wathola inkontileka ngoDisemba, kanti ukwehla kwamandla emali ezitolo kunyuke ngesivinini esingangenyanga yesithupha ilandelana ngoMasingana, okudala ukungabaza mayelana nenqubo yokusimama komnotho omusha. Ukukhula komnotho wase-India kulinganiselwa ukuthi iHhovisi Likazwelonke Lezibalo zehle ngeminyaka engu-11 ngaphansi kuka-5% ngo-2019-2020 ngenxa yokusetshenziswa budlabha kanye nesidingo sokutshala imali.
UMadan Sabnavis, isazi sezomnotho esiyinhloko kwa-CARE Ratings, uthe amanani aphansi kawoyela abe yisibusiso eNdiya. "Kodwa-ke, ingcindezi ekhuphukayo ayinakuhoxiswa, ngokuncishiswa okuthile okulindeleke yi-Opec namanye amazwe athumela ngaphandle. Ngakho-ke, sidinga ukugxila ekutheni singakhuphula kanjani ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe futhi sibheke ukukhulisa imbangela yamanani aphansi kawoyela, okungukuthi, i-coronavirus, futhi siphushele izimpahla zethu eChina, kuyilapho sifuna ezinye izindlela zabahlinzeki ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe. Ngenhlanhla, ngenxa yokugeleza kwezimali okuzinzile, wengeza ingcindezi.
Ikhathazekile ngesimo sokufunwa kukawoyela, i-Opec ingase iqhubekisele phambili umhlangano wayo wangomhla zi-5-6 kuNdasa, lapho iphaneli yayo yezobuchwepheshe incoma ukunqanyulwa kwesikhashana ohlelweni lwe-Opec+.
"Ngenxa yokuhweba okunempilo okuvela eMpumalanga, umthelela emachwebeni amabhokisi afana ne-JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) uzoba phezulu, kanti umthelela echwebeni lase-Mundra uzokhawulelwa," kusho u-Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, umqondisi kanye nomqondisi oholayo wezokuthutha nezokuthutha e-Crisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Okuhlukile ukuthi ezinye zezinto ezikhiqizwayo zingasuka eChina ziye eNdiya okwesikhashana."
Ngenkathi ukunyuka kwamanani aluhlaza ngenxa yokungezwani okukhulayo phakathi kwe-US ne-Iran bekungokwesikhashana, ukuqubuka kwe-coronavirus kanye nokuphuma okuseduze okunqanyulwe amazwe e-Opec kwethule into yokungaqiniseki.
"Nakuba amanani kawoyela ephansi, izinga lokushintshisana (i-rupee uma liqhathaniswa nedola) liyakhuphuka, okuholela ezindlekweni eziphakeme. Sikhululekile uma i-rupee icishe ibe ngu-65-70 uma iqhathaniswa nedola. Njengoba ingxenye enkulu yezindleko zethu, okuhlanganisa naleyo kaphethiloli wendiza, ikhokhelwa ngamadola, ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe kuyisici esibalulekile sezindleko zethu, "kusho isikhulu esiphezulu senkampani yezindiza ezinze eNew Delhi.
Ngokuqinisekile, ukukhuphuka kwesidingo sikawoyela kungase kuphinde kwenyuse amanani entengo angase avuse ukwehla kwamandla emali futhi alimaze isidingo.
Amanani aphezulu kawoyela nawo abe nomthelela ongaqondile ngokukhuphuka kwezindleko zokukhiqiza nezokuthutha futhi abe nengcindezi ekhuphukayo ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali yokudla. Noma yimiphi imizamo yokunciphisa umthwalo kubathengi ngokwehlisa intela yentela kaphethiloli nodizili izophazamisa ukuqoqwa kwemali engenayo.
U-Ravindra Sonavane, u-Kalpana Pathak, u-Asit Ranjan Mishra, u-Shreya Nandi, u-Rhik Kundu, u-Navadha Pandey kanye no-Gireesh Chandra Prasad baba nesandla kule ndaba.
Manje usubhalisele izincwadi zethu zezindaba. Uma kwenzeka ungakwazi ukuthola noma iyiphi i-imeyili ohlangothini lwethu, sicela uhlole ifolda yogaxekile.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-28-2021