Ngaphansi kwesikhuthazo esikabili sokubuyiselwa kwesidingo kanye nokuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, amanani e-aluminium akhuphukele phezulu eminyakeni eyi-13. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izikhungo ziye zahluka ngokuya ngesiqondiso sesikhathi esizayo semboni. Abanye abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi amanani e-aluminium azoqhubeka ekhuphuka. Futhi ezinye izikhungo seziqalile ukukhipha izixwayiso zemakethe yamabhere, zithi isiqongo sesifikile.
Njengoba amanani e-aluminium eqhubeka nokukhuphuka, iGoldman Sachs kanye neCitigroup baphakamise amathemba abo ngamanani e-aluminium. Isilinganiso sakamuva seCitigroup sithi ezinyangeni ezintathu ezizayo, amanani e-aluminium angakhuphuka afike ku-US$2,900/ton, kanti amanani e-aluminium ezinyanga eziyi-6-12 angakhuphuka afike ku-US$3,100/ton, njengoba amanani e-aluminium ezoshintsha asuke emakethe ye-bull ejikelezayo aye emakethe ye-bull eyakhiwe. Intengo ejwayelekile ye-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-US$2,475/ton ngo-2021 kanye no-US$3,010/ton ngonyaka ozayo.
UGoldman Sachs ukholelwa ukuthi umbono wochungechunge lokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke ungase unciphe, futhi intengo ye-futures aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke kakhulu, futhi intengo eqondiwe ye-futures aluminium ezinyangeni ezingu-12 ezizayo inyuswe ibe yi-US$3,200/ton.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu seTrafigura Group, inkampani yokuhweba ngezimpahla zomhlaba wonke, sitshele abezindaba ngoLwesibili ukuthi amanani e-aluminium azoqhubeka nokufinyelela phezulu kakhulu ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla kanye nokuntuleka okukhulu kokukhiqiza.
Izwi elinengqondo
Kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, amazwi amaningi aqala ukubiza imakethe ukuthi yehlise umoya. Umuntu ofanele ophethe i-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association uthe muva nje ukuthi amanani e-aluminium aphezulu aphindaphindwayo angase angaqhubeki, futhi "kunezingozi ezintathu ezingasekelwa kanye nezingozi ezimbili ezinkulu."
Umuntu ophethe uthe izici ezingasekeli ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwamanani e-aluminium zifaka: akukho ukushoda okusobala kokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium nge-electrolytic, futhi yonke imboni yenza yonke imizamo yokuqinisekisa ukutholakala; ukwanda kwezindleko zokukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium nge-electrolytic kusobala ukuthi akuphakeme njengokwenyuka kwentengo; ukusetshenziswa kwamanje akwanele ukusekela amanani aphezulu kangaka e-aluminium.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukhulume nangengozi yokulungiswa kwemakethe. Uthe ukwanda okukhulu kwamanje kwamanani e-aluminium kwenze izinkampani zokucubungula i-aluminium ezingezansi zaba lusizi. Uma izimboni ezingezansi zikhungathekile, noma ngisho noma amanani aphezulu e-aluminium evimbela ukusetshenziswa kwe-terminal, kuzoba nezinto ezihlukile, ezizoshukumisa isisekelo sokwenyuka kwentengo futhi ziholele ekutheni intengo ihlehle ngokushesha ezingeni eliphezulu ngesikhathi esifushane, kwakha ingozi ehlelekile.
Umuntu ophethe uphinde wakhuluma ngomthelela wokuqiniswa kwezinqubomgomo zezimali zamabhange amakhulu emhlabeni emananini e-aluminium. Uthe isimo esingakaze sibonwe sokunciphisa imali yisona esibangela lokhu kungqubuzana kwamanani ezimpahla, futhi uma isimo semali sesiphelile, amanani ezimpahla nawo azobhekana nezingozi ezinkulu zesistimu.
UJorge Vazquez, umqondisi ophethe weHarbor Intelligence, inkampani yokubonisana yase-US, naye uyavumelana ne-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Uthe isidingo se-aluminium sesidlule isikhathi saso esijwayelekile.
“Sibona ukuthi isidingo sesakhiwo eShayina (se-aluminium) siyancipha”, ingozi yokwehla komnotho embonini iyanda, futhi amanani e-aluminium angase abe sengozini yokuwa ngokushesha, kusho uVazquez engqungqutheleni yemboni yaseHarbor ngoLwesine.
Ukuguquka kweGuinea kuveze ukukhathazeka mayelana nokuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-bauxite emakethe yomhlaba wonke. Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe embonini ye-bauxite yezwe bathi lokhu kuguquka akunakwenzeka ukuthi kube nomthelela omkhulu wesikhashana ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Septhemba 13-2021