Ngaphansi kwezikhuthazo ezimbili zokutholwa kwesidingo kanye nokuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain, izintengo ze-aluminium zikhuphuke zaya phezulu ngeminyaka engu-13. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izikhungo ziye zahlukana mayelana nendlela yesikhathi esizayo yemboni. Abanye abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi amanani e-aluminium azoqhubeka nokukhuphuka. Futhi ezinye izikhungo seziqalile ukukhipha izexwayiso zezimakethe zamabhere, zithi inani eliphakeme selifikile.
Njengoba amanani e-aluminium eqhubeka nokukhuphuka, i-Goldman Sachs ne-Citigroup baye baphakamisa lokho abakulindele ngamanani e-aluminium. Isilinganiso sakamuva se-Citigroup siwukuthi ezinyangeni ezintathu ezizayo, amanani e-aluminium angase akhuphuke afinyelele ku-US$2,900/ton, futhi amanani e-aluminium ezinyanga eziyisi-6-12 angase akhuphuke aye ku-US$3,100/ton, njengoba amanani e-aluminium azoshintsha esuka emakethe yezinkunzi ejikelezayo aye kweyesakhiwo. imakethe yezinkunzi. Isilinganiso senani le-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi libe ngu-$2,475/ton ngo-2021 kanye ne-US$3,010/ton ngonyaka ozayo.
I-Goldman Sachs ikholelwa ukuthi umbono we-global supply chain ungase uwohloke, futhi intengo ye-aluminium yesikhathi esizayo kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke kakhulu, futhi intengo ehlosiwe ye-aluminium yesikhathi esizayo yezinyanga ezizayo ze-12 ikhushulwe ku-US $ 3,200 / ton.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, isazi sezomnotho esiyinhloko seTrafigura Group, inkampani yamazwe ngamazwe ehweba ngempahla, iphinde yatshela abezindaba ngoLwesibili ukuthi amanani e-aluminium azoqhubeka nokushaya amarekhodi esimweni sokufunwa okunamandla nokujula kokulahlekelwa kokukhiqiza.
Izwi elinengqondo
Kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, amazwi amaningi aqala ukucela ukuthi imakethe izolile. Umuntu ofanelekile ophethe i-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association muva nje uthe amanani entengo e-aluminium aphezulu aphindaphindwayo angase angasimami, futhi “kunezingozi ezintathu ezingasekelwe nezimbili ezinkulu.”
Umuntu ophethe uthe izici ezingasekeli ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwamanani e-aluminium zihlanganisa: akukho ukushoda okusobala kwe-electrolytic aluminium supply, futhi yonke imboni yenza yonke imizamo yokuqinisekisa ukuhlinzekwa; ukwanda kwezindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic ngokusobala akuphakeme njengokukhuphuka kwentengo; ukusetshenziswa kwamanje akwanele ukusekela amanani aphezulu kangaka e-aluminium.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubuye wakhuluma ngengozi yokulungiswa kwemakethe. Uthe ukunyuka okukhulu kwamanje kwamanani e-aluminium kwenze izinkampani ezikhiqiza i-aluminium ezansi nomfula zaphatheka kabi. Uma izimboni ezansi nomfula zikhungathekile, noma ngisho nakanye amanani aphezulu e-aluminium avimbela ukusetshenziswa kwetheminali, kuzoba nezinye izinto ezisetshenziswayo, ezizonyakazisa isisekelo sokunyuka kwentengo futhi kuholele ekutheni Intengo ihlehle ngokushesha ezingeni eliphezulu ngesikhathi esifushane, yakha a ingozi yesistimu.
Umuntu ophethe uphinde wakhuluma ngomthelela wokuqiniswa kwezinqubomgomo zezimali zamabhange amakhulu emhlabeni ezintengo ze-aluminium. Uthe isimo sokunciphisa imali ngendlela engakaze ibonwe yiyona ehamba phambili yamanani entengo yempahla, futhi uma isimo semali sesinciphile, amanani ezimpahla nawo azobhekana nezingozi ezinkulu zesistimu.
UJorge Vazquez, umqondisi ophethe we-Harbour Intelligence, inkampani yezokubonisana yase-US, naye uyavumelana ne-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Uthe isidingo se-aluminium sesidlulile esiqongweni saso somjikelezo.
"Sibona umfutho wezidingo zesakhiwo e-China (ye-aluminium) uyancipha", ingozi yokuwohloka komnotho iyanda, futhi amanani e-aluminium angase abe engozini yokuwa ngokushesha, kusho uVazquez engqungqutheleni yezimboni ze-Harbour ngoLwesine.
Ukuketulwa kombuso waseGuinea kuzwakalise ukukhathazeka ngokuphazanyiswa kwe-bauxite supply chain emakethe yomhlaba. Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe bemboni ye-bauxite yakuleli bathe lokhu kuketulwa umbuso mancane amathuba okuthi kube nomthelela omkhulu wesikhashana ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-13-2021